A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
